Josh Palmer Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+207/-312).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +219 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +207.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.40 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Josh Palmer has put up many more air yards this year (61.0 per game) than he did last year (27.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (64.5%) to wideouts this year (64.5%).
The Miami Dolphins defense has given up the 4th-least touchdowns through the air in football to WRs: 0.58 per game this year.
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season.

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