Josh Palmer Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+214/-328).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -303 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -328.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 64.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Palmer to be much more involved in his offense's passing offense near the goal line this week (21.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (12.5% in games he has played).
Josh Palmer has notched many more air yards this year (48.0 per game) than he did last year (27.0 per game).
Josh Palmer's 37.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 17.2.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to call the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the 4th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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