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Josh Oliver

Josh Oliver Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons

Josh Oliver Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-184/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +108 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -184.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Vikings to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.3% pass rate.

The projections expect this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Atlanta Falcons defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (35.6 per game) this year.

Josh Oliver's 17.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 7.7.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is implied by the Vikings being a 6-point favorite in this week's game.

The 9th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a mere 55.8 per game on average).

This year, the formidable Falcons defense has allowed a puny 71.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 5th-best rate in the league.

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Atlanta's unit has been excellent this year, profiling as the 6th-best in football.

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