Josh Oliver Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Josh Oliver

NFL · Player Props

Josh Oliver

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Oliver Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 63.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 60.6 plays per game.
Josh Oliver's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 62.5% to 88.8%.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Vikings have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
The Carolina Panthers defense has allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards per game in the league (just 38.0) to TEs since the start of last season.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.91 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-fewest in the league.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Carolina's safety corps has been fantastic since the start of last season, grading out as the 9th-best in football.

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