Josh Oliver Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Josh Oliver

NFL · Player Props

Josh Oliver

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Oliver Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) because they be rolling with backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs.
The model projects the Vikings as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Josh Oliver's 35.6% snap rate this year represents a significant reduction in his offensive utilization over last year's 46.3% figure.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Vikings profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.
Josh Oliver's 86.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this year conveys a significant progression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 62.5% figure.

Favors Under

Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Broncos, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in football (just 33.8 per game) this year.
After totaling 13.0 air yards per game last year, Josh Oliver has seen a big downtick this year, now sitting at 3.0 per game.
Josh Oliver's 5.4 adjusted yards per target this year illustrates a noteable drop-off in his receiving ability over last year's 6.7 mark.

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