Josh Oliver Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Josh Oliver

NFL · Player Props

Josh Oliver

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 3:26 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Oliver Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings will be rolling with backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.1% of their plays: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to see 132.2 plays on offense called: the highest number among all games this week.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.
Josh Oliver has been much less involved in his team's offense this season, staying in the game for just 34.7% of snaps compared to 46.3% last season.

Favors Under

After totaling 13.0 air yards per game last year, Josh Oliver has significantly declined this year, now sitting at 3.0 per game.
Josh Oliver's pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, compiling just 5.40 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 6.69 mark last year.
The Saints pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (64.6%) vs. TEs this year (64.6%).
This year, the strong Saints defense has conceded the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing TEs: a puny 6.7 yards.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New Orleans's unit has been tremendous this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the league.

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