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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 66.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 65.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 66.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 133.5 offensive plays run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.
  • The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
  • The predictive model expects Josh Jacobs to garner 17.5 rush attempts in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
  • Josh Jacobs's 81.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year reflects a meaningful boost in his rushing proficiency over last year's 62.0 rate.
  • Josh Jacobs's running efficiency has gotten better this season, compiling 4.48 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to just 3.48 mark last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 8th-least run-focused team in the league (37.6% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Green Bay Packers.
  • Josh Jacobs has been a much smaller part of his team's run game this season (60.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (81.5%).
  • This year, the stout Lions run defense has allowed a paltry 95.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.
  • The Lions safeties project as the 6th-best group of safeties in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

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