Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 9, 2024

Updated Nov 3, 2024 9:36 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 66.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 65.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 66.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 133.5 offensive plays run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The predictive model expects Josh Jacobs to garner 17.5 rush attempts in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
Josh Jacobs's 81.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year reflects a meaningful boost in his rushing proficiency over last year's 62.0 rate.
Josh Jacobs's running efficiency has gotten better this season, compiling 4.48 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to just 3.48 mark last season.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 8th-least run-focused team in the league (37.6% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Green Bay Packers.
Josh Jacobs has been a much smaller part of his team's run game this season (60.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (81.5%).
This year, the stout Lions run defense has allowed a paltry 95.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.
The Lions safeties project as the 6th-best group of safeties in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

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