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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 61.5 (-125/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 56.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 61.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Packers are a 5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

The model projects the Packers to be the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.69 seconds per play.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) usually lead to worse passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.

The predictive model expects Josh Jacobs to earn 16.2 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 87th percentile among RBs.

With an exceptional rate of 68.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (93rd percentile), Josh Jacobs rates as one of the leading pure runners in football since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Packers to be the 2nd-most run-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 45.6% run rate.

After comprising 81.5% of his offense's rushing play calls last year, Josh Jacobs has had a smaller role in the run game this year, now sitting at only 57.4%.

Since the start of last season, the weak Vikings run defense has been gouged for a massive 3.92 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition's running game: the 29th-biggest rate in the league.

The Minnesota defensive tackles profile as the 7th-best group of DTs in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

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