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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 78.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 65.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 78.5 @ -123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the model to have 130.9 total plays called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.

The model projects Josh Jacobs to notch 17.2 rush attempts this week, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to running backs.

Josh Jacobs has run for a lot more adjusted yards per game (82.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).

Josh Jacobs's 4.4 adjusted yards per carry this year reflects a material improvement in his running proficiency over last year's 3.5 mark.

Josh Jacobs has done a better job at generating extra rushing yardage this year, notching 3.51 yards-after-contact compared to a 2.35 mark last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests a passing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.

The predictive model expects the Packers as the 8th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.1% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.

After making up 81.5% of his team's rush attempts last year, Josh Jacobs has had a smaller role in the ground game this year, now comprising just 64.9%.

This year, the formidable Detroit Lions run defense has conceded a meager 89.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 4th-best in the NFL.

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