Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Giants · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 74.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 74.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 74.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 6th-most run-centric team in football (41.8% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Las Vegas Raiders.
The leading projections forecast Josh Jacobs to earn 20.1 carries in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Out of all running backs, Josh Jacobs grades out in the 99th percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 79.4% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.
As it relates to blocking for ball-carriers (and the impact it has on all ground game statistics), the O-line of the Raiders ranks as the 3rd-best in the league last year.
The New York Giants defense has produced the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, surrendering 4.88 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Raiders are projected by the projections to run only 60.4 total plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.
The fewest plays in football have been run by the Las Vegas Raiders this year (only 52.9 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Josh Jacobs has rushed for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (52.0) this year than he did last year (100.0).
Josh Jacobs's running efficiency has diminished this season, compiling just 3.16 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.99 rate last season.

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