Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 10, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 76.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 73.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 76.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects Josh Jacobs to notch 18.9 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Among all running backs, Josh Jacobs grades out in the 99th percentile for rush attempts this year, accounting for 78.9% of the workload in his team's running game.
The Raiders O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL last year at opening holes for runners.
This year, the anemic Packers run defense has surrendered a whopping 157.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the most in football.
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Green Bay's unit has been awful this year, grading out as the worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Raiders as the 5th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 39.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have only 123.6 offensive plays run: the fewest among all games this week.
The Las Vegas Raiders have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 51.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Josh Jacobs's 40.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year represents a a meaningful reduction in his running ability over last year's 100.0 figure.

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