Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (+112/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 64.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 69.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 2nd-most run-centric offense in football (44.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Las Vegas Raiders.
In this week's game, Josh Jacobs is expected by the model to land in the 97th percentile among RBs with 20.9 rush attempts.
Josh Jacobs has earned 81.4% of his team's rushing play calls this year, placing him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
When it comes to executing run-blocking assignments (and the influence it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Raiders ranks as the 3rd-best in the NFL last year.
This year, the formidable Chiefs run defense has surrendered a paltry 4.52 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's rushing attack: the 25th-smallest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The Raiders are a giant 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to run just 63.4 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
The Raiders have run the 4th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 53.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Josh Jacobs has run for many fewer adjusted yards per game (61.0) this year than he did last year (100.0).

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