Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 12:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (+104/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 67.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 69.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 8th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 44.0% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
In this game, Josh Jacobs is expected by our trusted projection set to place in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs with 21.5 rush attempts.
Among all running backs, Josh Jacobs grades out in the 99th percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 80.3% of the workload in his offense's ground game.
When talking about run support (and the influence it has on all ground game metrics), the O-line of the Raiders grades out as the 3rd-best in the league last year.
This year, the weak Jets run defense has yielded a staggering 135.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 4th-worst in football.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are anticipated by the projection model to call just 62.0 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Las Vegas Raiders have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.2 plays per game.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
Josh Jacobs has rushed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (58.0) this year than he did last year (100.0).
Josh Jacobs's rushing efficiency has tailed off this season, notching a mere 3.29 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.99 figure last season.