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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 61.5 (+107/-136).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 61.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 61.5 @ -136.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.
  • THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to notch 16.1 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year at run-game blocking.
  • Josh Jacobs has run for many more yards per game (91.0) this season than he did last season (56.0).
  • Josh Jacobs's running efficiency has gotten better this season, totaling 5.20 yards-per-carry vs a measly 4.12 mark last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Raiders are a massive 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 34.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to be much less involved in his team's running game this week (73.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (83.8% in games he has played).

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