Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to earn 17.0 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the best in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.
Josh Jacobs has run for many more yards per game (102.0) this year than he did last year (56.0).
Josh Jacobs's rushing efficiency has improved this season, accumulating 5.04 yards-per-carry vs a measly 4.12 figure last season.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will be rolling out backup QB Jarrett Stidham this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Raiders are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 7th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 37.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.19 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

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