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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 54.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 55.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to total 17.6 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.

Josh Jacobs has been a more important option in his offense's run game this season (87.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (67.7%).

The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.

Josh Jacobs has run for significantly more yards per game (103.0) this season than he did last season (56.0).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Las Vegas Raiders will be rolling with backup QB Jarrett Stidham this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

The Raiders are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 35.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

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