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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 80.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 81.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 80.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to accumulate 20.1 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among RBs.

Josh Jacobs has been a more integral piece of his offense's running game this year (86.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (67.7%).

The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the best in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.

Josh Jacobs has run for many more yards per game (108.0) this season than he did last season (56.0).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing teams have run for the 8th-least yards in football (just 108 per game) versus the New England Patriots defense this year.

The New England Patriots safeties profile as the 5th-best collection of safeties in football this year with their run defense.

The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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