Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 80.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 81.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 80.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to accumulate 20.1 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
Josh Jacobs has been a more integral piece of his offense's running game this year (86.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (67.7%).
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the best in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
Josh Jacobs has run for many more yards per game (108.0) this season than he did last season (56.0).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have run for the 8th-least yards in football (just 108 per game) versus the New England Patriots defense this year.
The New England Patriots safeties profile as the 5th-best collection of safeties in football this year with their run defense.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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