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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 8

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders

Josh Jacobs Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-131/-101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -131.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Josh Jacobs has earned 90.5% of his offense's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.

The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line profiles as the best in the league this year at blocking for rushers.

Josh Jacobs has rushed for 1.00 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in the NFL among running backs (99th percentile).

Opposing teams have rushed for the 10th-most touchdowns in football (1.00 per game) against the New Orleans Saints defense this year.

The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Raiders have been the 9th-least run-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 36.2% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.72 seconds per snap.

The New Orleans Saints defensive ends rank as the 4th-best DE corps in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on just 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

The Las Vegas Raiders have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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