Josh Jacobs Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-113/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Josh Jacobs has earned 88.9% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, putting him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
Josh Jacobs has run for 0.60 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the league among running backs (92nd percentile).
The Houston Texans linebackers rank as the worst LB corps in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Raiders have been the 7th-least run-oriented offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 32.9% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-worst paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.78 seconds per play.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Las Vegas Raiders have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders have used some form of misdirection on a measly 40.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.