Josh Jacobs Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-101/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Josh Jacobs has received 87.1% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the best in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
Josh Jacobs has rushed for 0.85 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (98th percentile).

Favors Under

The Raiders have been the 10th-least run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 39.6% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the least touchdowns in football (0.46 per game) vs. the New England Patriots defense this year.
The New England Patriots safeties profile as the 5th-best collection of safeties in football this year with their run defense.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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