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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 15

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Josh Jacobs Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-101/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -132.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Josh Jacobs has received 87.1% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the best in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
  • Josh Jacobs has rushed for 0.85 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (98th percentile).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Raiders have been the 10th-least run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 39.6% red zone run rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses have rushed for the least touchdowns in football (0.46 per game) vs. the New England Patriots defense this year.
  • The New England Patriots safeties profile as the 5th-best collection of safeties in football this year with their run defense.
  • The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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