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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 13

Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers

Josh Jacobs Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-121/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -107 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -121.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Josh Jacobs has received 89.7% of his team's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 100th percentile among running backs.

The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.

Josh Jacobs has rushed for 0.82 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (96th percentile).

Opposing offenses have run for the 7th-most touchdowns in the league (1.09 per game) versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year.

The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends profile as the 2nd-worst DE corps in football this year in regard to run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Raiders have been the 3rd-least run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 33.8% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a lowly 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

The Las Vegas Raiders have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

The Las Vegas Raiders have used some form of misdirection on just 40.7% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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