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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 11

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders

Josh Jacobs Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+104/-139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +126 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Josh Jacobs has been given 91.7% of his team's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among RBs.

The Las Vegas Raiders O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year in run blocking.

Josh Jacobs has run for 0.78 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (96th percentile).

The Denver Broncos defensive ends project as the worst unit in the league this year in regard to run defense.

The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-least run-oriented offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 40.7% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-worst paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 28.94 seconds per snap.

Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-least touchdowns in the league (0.56 per game) versus the Denver Broncos defense this year.

The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

The Las Vegas Raiders have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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