Josh Jacobs Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-114/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +102 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Josh Jacobs has received 90.5% of his offense's red zone carries this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.
Josh Jacobs has run for 0.75 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in football among running backs (95th percentile).
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Raiders have been the 6th-least run-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 33.5% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers profile as the best collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Las Vegas Raiders have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.