Josh Jacobs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 9, 2024

Updated Nov 3, 2024 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+155/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Packers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.4% pass rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 133.5 offensive plays run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.
The Detroit Lions defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (39.6 per game) this year.
The leading projections forecast Josh Jacobs to accrue 3.2 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to RBs.
The Green Bay offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Josh Jacobs's 12.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 20.5.
As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Detroit's collection of safeties has been exceptional this year, grading out as the best in the league.

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