Josh Jacobs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Houston Texans · Week 7, 2024

Updated Oct 20, 2024 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+116/-152).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.0% pass rate.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 136.1 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.
This week, Josh Jacobs is predicted by the predictive model to rank in the 79th percentile among RBs with 2.9 targets.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Packers profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year.
Josh Jacobs's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 69.0% to 84.7%.

Favors Under

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Packers, who are favored by 3 points.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Josh Jacobs's 11.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 20.5.
Josh Jacobs's receiving skills have declined this year, compiling a mere 1.8 adjusted catches vs 2.8 last year.
This year, the formidable Houston Texans defense has allowed a measly 74.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the best rate in football.

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