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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Green Bay Packers vs Arizona Cardinals

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+122/-160).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football (64.1% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Packers.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to have 133.6 offensive plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week.

When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Green Bay Packers grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year.

Josh Jacobs's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 69.0% to 79.2%.

The Cardinals pass defense has surrendered the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (88.6%) to RBs since the start of last season (88.6%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is suggested by the Packers being a 5-point favorite this week.

Opposing offenses teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Arizona Cardinals, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in football (just 28.6 per game) this year.

Josh Jacobs has been a much smaller part of his offense's passing game this year (7.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (12.7%).

Josh Jacobs's receiving performance has worsened this year, totaling just 1.6 adjusted catches vs 2.8 last year.

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