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Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-121/-107).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -121.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At the present time, the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (54.4% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Green Bay Packers.The model projects the Packers to be the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.69 seconds per play.The Vikings defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (36.7 per game) since the start of last season.The model projects Josh Jacobs to earn 3.1 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs.Josh Jacobs has been in the 90th percentile among running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) with a remarkable 18.7 figure since the start of last season.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Packers are a 5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) usually lead to worse passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.Josh Jacobs has been one of the worst possession receivers in football among running backs, catching a mere 69.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 2nd percentile.The Vikings linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
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