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Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+110).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Packers will be forced to use backup QB Malik Willis in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.Josh Jacobs has been heavily involved in his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 12.1% since the start of last season, which places him in the 88th percentile among RBs.With an impressive 2.5 adjusted catches per game (80th percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Jacobs rates as one of the top pass-catching running backs in football.When it comes to defensive ends pass-rushing, Tennessee's group of DEs has been terrible since the start of last season, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This game's line suggests a running game script for the Packers, who are favored by 3.5 points.Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Packers to pass on 49.3% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest rate among all teams this week.The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.Josh Jacobs has been one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL when it comes to RBs, catching a measly 69.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 2nd percentile.Since the start of last season, the formidable Titans defense has conceded a meager 76.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 5th-smallest rate in football.
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