Josh Jacobs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2024

Updated Sep 15, 2024 7:22 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Green Bay Packers may take to the air less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to use backup QB Malik Willis.
With a top-tier 12.5% Target Share (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Jacobs places as one of the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in football.
With an exceptional 2.8 adjusted catches per game (83rd percentile) last year, Josh Jacobs rates as one of the best pass-game RBs in the NFL.

Favors Under

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Packers, who are favored by 4 points.
The model projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 10th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 126.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 10th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Green Bay Packers since the start of last season (a mere 56.7 per game on average).
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Indianapolis Colts, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.8 per game) since the start of last season.

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