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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +125 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Packers are underdogs this week, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 131.8 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may go down.

The projections expect Josh Jacobs to accrue 3.7 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 84th percentile when it comes to RBs.

When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Packers ranks as the 5th-best in football this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the present time, the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (58.2% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Green Bay Packers.

The 3rd-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Green Bay Packers this year (a mere 55.7 per game on average).

Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Eagles defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.

Josh Jacobs's 12.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 20.5.

The Eagles linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

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