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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Las Vegas Raiders vs Minnesota Vikings

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-179/+129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -157 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -179.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Raiders are underdogs in this game, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their typical approach.

The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The Minnesota Vikings defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.8 per game) this year.

The projections expect Josh Jacobs to total 4.4 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile among running backs.

Josh Jacobs rates in the 96th percentile when it comes to RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) with a staggering 21.4 mark this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Raiders to be the 3rd-least pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 55.9% pass rate.

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Raiders are forecasted by the model to run only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.

The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Las Vegas Raiders this year (a measly 53.9 per game on average).

Josh Jacobs's 68.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this year marks a noteable reduction in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 86.3% figure.

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Minnesota's unit has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.

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