Josh Jacobs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-175/+145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being an enormous -14-point underdog in this week's contest.
In this week's game, Josh Jacobs is forecasted by our trusted projection set to land in the 90th percentile among running backs with 4.3 targets.
Josh Jacobs's 23.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 17.6.
The Raiders O-line ranks as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
With a terrific 2.9 adjusted catches per game (86th percentile) this year, Josh Jacobs places among the top pass-game running backs in the NFL.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (55.1% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Las Vegas Raiders.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 62.8 total plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Raiders have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.6 plays per game.
Josh Jacobs's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 86.3% to 69.9%.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Miami's unit has been terrific this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.

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