Josh Jacobs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -175 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
In this game, Josh Jacobs is anticipated by the projections to find himself in the 80th percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.1 targets.
Josh Jacobs's 24.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 17.6.
In regards to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Las Vegas Raiders profiles as the best in football this year.
With an outstanding 3.1 adjusted catches per game (90th percentile) this year, Josh Jacobs rates as one of the leading RB receiving threats in the league.

Favors Under

The model projects the Raiders as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are anticipated by the projection model to call just 62.0 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Las Vegas Raiders have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.2 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.
Josh Jacobs's 68.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this year indicates a significant reduction in his receiving skills over last year's 86.3% figure.