Josh Jacobs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+150/-180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to accrue 3.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
Josh Jacobs has been a big part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 11.1% this year, which ranks in the 85th percentile among RBs.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Josh Jacobs has been among the leading pass-game running backs this year, averaging a terrific 3.1 receptions per game while ranking in the 84th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 6th-slowest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 29.05 seconds per snap.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on a measly 16.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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