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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+152/-210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -184 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -210.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to notch 4.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among RBs.

Josh Jacobs has been a big part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 11.7% this year, which ranks in the 87th percentile among running backs.

The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.72 seconds per snap.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in football.

The New Orleans Saints pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (68.4%) vs. running backs this year (68.4%).

The New Orleans Saints linebackers rank as the 4th-best LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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