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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Tennessee Titans vs Las Vegas Raiders

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+137/-186).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -207 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +137.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL.

Josh Jacobs has been among the top running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.1 receptions per game while ranking in the 91st percentile.

The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line has given their QB 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Las Vegas Raiders have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to be much less involved in his team's pass attack this week (5.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.4% in games he has played).

The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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