Josh Jacobs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 2:16 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to total 3.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 85th percentile among running backs.
Josh Jacobs's 18.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 88th percentile for running backs.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Josh Jacobs has been among the top pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a stellar 3.3 receptions per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.
Josh Jacobs has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL among RBs, catching an impressive 85.9% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 95th percentile.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties project as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on just 16.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.