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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-135).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to total 3.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 85th percentile among running backs.
  • Josh Jacobs's 18.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 88th percentile for running backs.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
  • Josh Jacobs has been among the top pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a stellar 3.3 receptions per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.
  • Josh Jacobs has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL among RBs, catching an impressive 85.9% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 95th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties project as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on just 16.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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