Josh Jacobs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 9, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+140/-185).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -185.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to garner 4.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
Josh Jacobs has been a key part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 12.3% this year, which places him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Josh Jacobs has been among the best pass-game RBs this year, averaging an impressive 3.5 receptions per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Raiders are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (74.3%) to RBs this year (74.3%).
The Los Angeles Rams defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season.

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