Josh Jacobs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+150/-180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to garner 4.0 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among running backs.
Josh Jacobs has been an integral part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 10.7% this year, which places him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
Josh Jacobs has been among the leading RBs in the pass game this year, averaging a stellar 3.1 receptions per game while checking in at the 87th percentile.

Favors Under

The Raiders are a 4-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 7th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-least in football.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on a mere 16.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.