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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Packers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.4% pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 133.5 offensive plays run: the 3rd-highest number among all games this week.

The Detroit Lions defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (39.6 per game) this year.

The leading projections forecast Josh Jacobs to accrue 3.2 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to RBs.

The Green Bay offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

In regards to air yards, Josh Jacobs grades out in the lowly 19th percentile among RBs this year, accruing just -3.0 per game.

Josh Jacobs's 12.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 20.5.

Josh Jacobs's 15.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year illustrates a remarkable regression in his receiving skills over last year's 23.0 figure.

The Lions defense has allowed the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 24.0) vs. RBs this year.

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