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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-120/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -109.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Green Bay Packers may take to the air less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to use backup QB Malik Willis.

With a top-tier 12.5% Target Share (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Jacobs places as one of the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in football.

Josh Jacobs has put up a colossal 4.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among RBs. (That may not seem like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Josh Jacobs profiles as one of the leading RBs in the pass game last year, averaging an outstanding 23.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

The Colts defense has given up the 4th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (40.0) vs. RBs since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Packers, who are favored by 4 points.

The model projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 10th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 126.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The 10th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Green Bay Packers since the start of last season (a mere 56.7 per game on average).

Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Indianapolis Colts, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.8 per game) since the start of last season.

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