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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-137/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -137.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (35.6 per game) this year.

Our trusted projections expect Josh Jacobs to earn 3.1 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs.

The Green Bay O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Packers to pass on 55.3% of their downs: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week.

The Green Bay Packers have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.2 plays per game.

When talking about air yards, Josh Jacobs ranks in just the 23rd percentile among RBs this year, averaging just -2.0 per game.

Josh Jacobs's 13.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 20.5.

This year, the formidable Seattle Seahawks defense has allowed a feeble 78.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 6th-smallest rate in football.

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