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Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-110).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -110.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This week's spread suggests a passing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Packers to pass on 61.9% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest rate on the slate this week.Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the model to have 130.9 total plays called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.The Lions defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.2 per game) this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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When talking about air yards, Josh Jacobs ranks in just the 14th percentile among running backs this year, averaging just -3.0 per game.Josh Jacobs's 14.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 20.5.This year, the daunting Detroit Lions defense has surrendered a paltry 25.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs: the 6th-best in the league.When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Detroit's collection of safeties has been fantastic this year, projecting as the best in the NFL.
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