Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers · Week 11, 2024

Updated Nov 17, 2024 7:17 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 10th-most pass-focused team in the league (62.0% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Green Bay Packers.
The model projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Packers grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year.
Josh Jacobs's 84.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this year reflects a noteworthy progression in his receiving skills over last year's 69.0% rate.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 6-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
When talking about air yards, Josh Jacobs ranks in the measly 12th percentile among running backs this year, totaling just -4.0 per game.
Josh Jacobs's 12.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 20.5.
Josh Jacobs has accumulated substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (16.0) this year than he did last year (23.0).
This year, the daunting Chicago Bears defense has yielded a feeble 27.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing RBs: the 7th-best in football.