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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-139/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -139.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Packers to be the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The Eagles defense has been something of pass funnel last year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (37.8 per game) last year.

In this contest, Josh Jacobs is anticipated by the model to land in the 87th percentile among RBs with 3.5 targets.

As it relates to air yards, Josh Jacobs ranks in the lofty 97th percentile among running backs last year, averaging an astounding 5.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

Josh Jacobs's 20.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in football: 93rd percentile for RBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Packers to call the 8th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

The 10th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Green Bay Packers last year (a measly 56.8 per game on average).

Josh Jacobs rates as one of the most unreliable receivers in football when it comes to RBs, completing a measly 69.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, checking in at the 5th percentile.

Last year, the daunting Eagles defense has conceded the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing running backs: a measly 5.1 yards.

The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has performed very well when opposing RBs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 7.44 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year: the 7th-fewest in football.

More Josh Jacobs Player Props

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