Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Giants · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In this game, Josh Jacobs is predicted by the model to secure a spot in the 93rd percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.6 targets.
In regards to air yards, Josh Jacobs grades out in the lofty 99th percentile among RBs this year, averaging an impressive 8.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).
Josh Jacobs's 26.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 17.6.
The Raiders offensive line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

Right now, the 6th-least pass-heavy team in football (58.2% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Las Vegas Raiders.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Raiders are projected by the projections to run only 60.4 total plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.
The fewest plays in football have been run by the Las Vegas Raiders this year (only 52.9 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.2 pass attempts per game against the Giants defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
Josh Jacobs's 69.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this season conveys a meaningful diminishment in his receiving ability over last season's 86.3% rate.