Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 30, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-145/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders will be forced to use backup QB Brian Hoyer in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Raiders are a massive 7-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Lions defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.
The model projects Josh Jacobs to garner 4.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 95th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Las Vegas Raiders are anticipated by the model to run just 60.7 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.
The Las Vegas Raiders have run the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.4 plays per game.
Josh Jacobs's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 86.3% to 72.0%.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.7%) vs. RBs this year (69.7%).

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