Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders will be rolling out backup QB Brian Hoyer in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Chicago Bears defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.5 per game) this year.
The predictive model expects Josh Jacobs to garner 4.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
When it comes to air yards, Josh Jacobs ranks in the towering 96th percentile among running backs this year, accumulating an astounding 7.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).
Josh Jacobs's 27.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 17.6.

Favors Under

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 54.0% of their plays: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Raiders to call the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Raiders have run the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 54.2 plays per game.
Josh Jacobs's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 86.3% to 78.0%.

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