Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 7:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Raiders as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 128.2 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
This week, Josh Jacobs is forecasted by our trusted projection set to place in the 97th percentile among RBs with 5.3 targets.
Josh Jacobs has accrued a massive 7.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not seem too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The 5th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Raiders this year (a lowly 53.0 per game on average).
Josh Jacobs's 79.8% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a a noteable decline in his receiving talent over last year's 86.3% mark.
The New England Patriots pass defense has been quite strong when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.93 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 9th-fewest in the NFL.

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