Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 10, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
In this contest, Josh Jacobs is anticipated by the model to find himself in the 95th percentile among running backs with 5.2 targets.
As it relates to air yards, Josh Jacobs grades out in the towering 100th percentile among RBs this year, accumulating an astounding 10.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more impressive than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).
Josh Jacobs's 30.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 17.6.
The the Las Vegas Raiders offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have only 123.6 offensive plays run: the fewest among all games this week.
The Las Vegas Raiders have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 51.8 plays per game.
Josh Jacobs's 75.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a a noteworthy reduction in his receiving proficiency over last season's 86.3% rate.